Introduction
As a coach I’ve always felt that the NZ doesn’t get a lot of respect! The NZ is that piece of real estate that is away from your own net and away from the opponents net so generally could be assumed to be a low risk zone. BUT oh how wrong that assumption would be. With the increased importance and focus of transition in the game of hockey this little piece of “neutral” real estate is probably one of the most important areas on the ice surface. What we do as a team in the NZ can win and lose games!
I said in my last article “ the key to neutralizing an opponents OZ FC is through an even better NZ FC by your own team ”. I thought that last nights game between MTL & VGK would be a good start to analytically look at the truth of that statement.
So what metrics should we measure if we want to assess the effectiveness of team’s NZ FC (forecheck)? To start, we want to examine 5 v 5 (even strength) data. Usually, a teams NZ FC/back track begins when the opposing team exits their DZ either through a regroup or breakout. In essence the OZ FC by our team is over and is now transitioning into a NZ FC/backtrack scenario. The best chance that the opposing team has to enter our DZ is through them having a controlled exit from their own DZ. So it would make sense to look at all the controlled DZ exits by our opponent (even strength) and see what the outcome of those controlled DZ exits were. Their outcomes include: controlled OZ entry, uncontrolled OZ entry (dump), NZ turnover or failed entry.
Background
Thanks to Jack Han for his system sheets!
As I mentioned in my previous article, MTL deploys a 1-1-2 NZ FC that tends to be very aggressive with the D not afraid to gap up to stretched opponents F’s in the NZ:
However, on line changes or when in a more defensive posture (with a lead) MTL also deploys a more trap/passive 1-1-3 NZ FC:
Methods
For both MTL and VGK I tracked the outcomes of all controlled DZ exits by both teams even strength. The outcomes tracked included: controlled OZ entry, uncontrolled OZ entry (dump), NZ turnover or failed entry along with the shot attempts generated off either controlled or uncontrolled OZ entries. The following table/chart shows the results:
Analysis
Upon review of the chart it is easy to see that VGK had a larger number of controlled DZ exits than did MTL (70 to 42). Many past analytics studies have shown that the more controlled DZ exits you have the more likely you are to enter the opponents OZ effectively. So at face value, with these controlled DZ exit numbers, you would assume that VGK would have great success at entering MTL OZ.
Fortunately for MTL and unfortunately for VGK, MTL’s NZ FC was extremely effective at deterring that expected outcome for VGK. Conversely, we can infer that VGK NZ FC was less effective at limiting MTL OZ entries.
Only 60% of VGK controlled DZ exits resulted in an OZ entry while 86% of MTL controlled DZ exits resulted in an OZ entry.
40% of VGK controlled DZ exits resulted in NZ TO’s or failed entries while only 14% of MTL controlled DZ exits resulted in NZ TO’s or failed entries.
SO even though VGK had a much larger number of controlled DZ exits MTL’s FC was so effective that they ended up have very similar number of OZ entries (36 to 42).
Once each team was in the OZ they were similarly effective at generating shot attempts (47 to 45 %) with MTL having a slight edge in finishing those shot attempts with 2 goals.
One could infer that if MTL’s NZ FC was not as effective that VGK’s would have had far more OZ entries and therefore more shot attempts.
The following video link shows numerous examples of MTL’s NZ FC against VGK on controlled DZ exits by VGK:
Conclusion
I believe this limited study has shown that if your opponent has a very effective OZ FC the best way to combat this is to prevent or limit your opponent from entering your OZ. On controlled DZ exits by the VGK’s MTL was very effective at limiting them access to their OZ and was a key factor in MTL’s win last night.
The next logical step in this study would be to assess VGK’s outcomes (controlled OZ entry, uncontrolled OZ entry (dump), NZ turnover or failed entry) off of MTL NZ turnovers. I may explore this at series end.
Thanks for reading!
JV